Raider Karma

Ravens win and their in, should be simple enough, after all this week’s game is kind of a gimme... Just don’t tell that to the; Buccaneers, Bengals, Steelers or Broncos…

One year ago the Raiders made a HUGE impact on the playoffs when they beat the Buccaneers in the season finale. The Bucs had everything to play for and that loss knocked them out of the playoffs and simultaneously gave a post season ticket to the Eagles who would use it well and advance to NFC title game.

Earlier this year the Bengals fell flat against the silver and black, and then it was the Steelers and finally the Broncos. The last two were on the road no less. The Steelers and Broncos have no excuses, both were critical games and in the Steelers case they had recently lost to the Chiefs so they shouldn’t have been looking past anybody.

The Raiders style of play coupled with the Ravens own style should keep the game fairly low scoring and therefore somewhat in doubt late into the game. The Ravens absolutely should win; I just won’t be shocked if they don’t.

 

Odds Schmods!

Was there any doubt that we’d be in this spot?

If you thought the season would end any other way, you clearly have not been paying attention. Here’s what will happen this weekend;

Steelers will beat Dolphins
Patriots will beat the Texans
Broncos will beat the Chiefs

I am fairly certain that the Ravens will beat the Raiders, but I have another post coming on that topic.

That leaves the Bengals vs Jets to determine our fate… on Sunday night no less. Last game of the regular season.

Conventional wisdom has the Jets playing much harder than the Bengals especially since Cincinnati will be locked into the #4 seed come kickoff time. I remember in ’89 when we needed the Vikings to beat the Bengals on Monday night (last game of the regular season) for us to get in. This time we need Cinci to come out on top, but the circumstances are very similar.

One other thing… If the Bengals lose to the Jets this week they are almost assured of getting them right back in the Wild Card Round. They will of course know this, and do they really want to face a team that JUST beat them? Now the Bengals have not played well of late, but I think they are a slightly better team than the Jets and I’m hoping that talent will win on this day.

If the Bengals pull it off, we’ll have a date with New England. I’ll be the first to say; I hate that matchup, but I’ll take it to get in.

The end is a new beginning...

As time ticks down, Ben scans the field, looking for someone, anyone. Finally he sees a window and lets it go, the pass is perfect, two hands clutch the ball, and two toes tap the turf… just barely inbounds. Steelers Win!

The receiver was Santonio Holmes, the game of course was the Super Bowl. That play capped a magical season where the Steelers simply would not be denied. Flash forward ten months, the receiver was also Mike Wallace and that game of course happened just yesterday. That eerily similar play officially ended a five game slide where the Steelers did everything but gift wrap victories for their opponents.

Could that one play be the start of a new season? Will it infuse the team with a confidence that has been the most crucial of all the missing ingredients? Don’t think so? Don’t laugh, I’m serious.

After six games the Tennessee Titans were 0-6 and had just been shellacked by the Patriots. At that point they were losing games because of a secondary that was decimated by injury which resulted in a fading confidence in all other aspects of their game. When they won that first game after their bye I said, “watch the Titans, they are going to be very good in the second half”. I felt that way because that team was so obviously better than their record and that one win provided just a spark of confidence. That is all a good team needs.

That is what the Steelers got on Sunday. If they win the last two, they will need just a little help and they are in the playoffs. If that happens, all bets are off and I am sure of this; nobody wants to see Pittsburgh in the post season.

Steel Sieve

The vaunted Steelers defense? The Cardinals exposed the Steelers Achilles heal last February and others have been doing it all year… Passing at will. Look, Pittsburgh can still defend the run, but why even try to run the Steelers when throwing is just soooo easy.

The question, “how can Troy make such a huge difference to this defense?” has been asked innumerable times and I think I finally have the answer.

He doesn’t.

Don’t get me wrong, Troy is our best defender, but he hardly makes this an elite pass defense. Rather he takes the Steelers from terrible to marginal, but that difference is significant because all we needed for this season to have been drastically different are a couple extra stops per game. Do you really think that either KC or Oakland carves us up in the fourth quarter with Troy in there? Me neither.

The bottom line is this is a unit with some major holes and those holes have been exposed.

AFC "Wild"Card Race

Why oh why can't the Steelers just be mathematically eliminated already???

With three games to go there are seven, yes seven teams within one game of the last spot. Who is going to get it? I still claim that Jacksonville and the Dolphins are pretenders, the Texans schedule is too tough and the Titans are just not quite there.

That leave realistically the Jets and the Ravens, I think both will finish 9-7. Based on current conference records the Ravens would get the last spot. I'm going to say that B-More will in fact get the 6th seed. Even if the Steelers win out, they lose out on tie breaks with those two teams.

Ain't the size of the dawg in the fight...

its the size of the fight in the dawg(pound).

Cleveland deserved to win this game. The Steelers played like their season was already over and whataya know? Self fulling prophecy comes true!

The O-Line was pathetic (can you think of a better word), Ben didn't have his usual urgency to avoid the rush, Mendendall wasn't hitting the holes (were there holes?) with power and seemingly nobody wanted to make a tackle.

Never seen the black and gold mail it in like that.

Hines is right, the last three are for pride. Screw the playoffs, to a man the Steelers need to prove they care. In short, they need to play like the, um, Browns.

No heart... no heartbeat

They have stopped caring, so why shouldn't I?

Nobody is good to enough overcome a lack of effort. The Steelers stopped believing in themselves before their fans did, but now we are all of the same mind. Season over, you get what you deserve.

When you play with no heart, you can not survive.

Browns Super Bowl

The Browns are in the Super Bowl… well kind of.

Their season is lost and at 1-11 they have nothing to play for except for; a high draft pick, a brand new front office, head coach, oh and of course to beat the Steelers. With losses to the Chiefs and Raiders in the last four weeks the Steelers must seem vulnerable to Cleveland. If they win the game they can effectively end the season for their arch rival, certainly a nice consolation prize. If they lose it’s just one more loss.

My guess is that the Steelers will come out fast and bury the Brownies early. If that doesn’t happen and the Browns keep it close, I’m going to have to shut my eyes for the fourth quarter.

Kethchup Colored Glasses?

I know, I know, the popular sentiment is that the Steelers season is over, they’re toast, turn out the lights the party’s over. So why must I continue my torture by believing that all is not lost?

Am I some sort of masochist? Not last I checked.

Am I that much of a blind homer? Quite possibly.

But mostly I think it’s in the facts…

When you look at this team vs the other teams in the hunt it is impossible for me to give the edge to any of them; both on talent and remaining schedule. I mean really; Jacksonville just is not very good, they face a difficult schedule to close the season and they are the only team in front of the Steelers for the 6^th seed. If they lose twice, the door is open. If we win out we will eliminate both Baltimore and Miami, then we just have to hope for one Jets loss and we are in.

Sounds good, but I know what you are thinking. How in the world can we expect this team to win their last four? Well, I do and here’s why… We have outplayed virtually every opponent this year, we’ve had a ton of late game let downs yes, but we are one blowout win, or one big defensive stop away from regaining our swagger. We get Green Bay after a long week of rest and we get the Ravens at home with a healthy Big Ben.

I hate that we are fighting for a six seed, but we are still fighting. In my crystal ball I see a matchup with Cinci in the Wild Card round and I for one am excited about that possibility. When we win that game, looks like we’ll get Indy in the divisional round, hmmm that seems oddly familiar.

I say put on your ketchup colored glasses, jump in your Delorean and set the date for 2005, gonna be a fun ride.

Steelers remain unbeaten

That is what the headline could have read.

That's right; despite injuries, less than stellar play and unimaginative play calling the Steelers season could have easily been something else entirely.

Week one of the season the Steelers struggle against the Titans, but pull it out in OT. This is one of only two games Pittsburgh has been outplayed in.

In weeks two and three Steelers give up a combined 24 pts in the fourth quarter, score zero and lose both games at the gun.

They rip off the next five games, only being seriously challenged once (by the Vikings).

During the current four game losing streak the Steelers gave up the last six points vs the Bengals. Dominated the box score against the Chiefs, darn near pulled off a win in Baltimore with a 3rd string QB and gave up 21 points to the Raiders... IN THE FOURTH QUARTER!

All 12 games have been winnable, ten of which should have been won. I don' think you can overstate the value of confidence. The Saints and Colts have both had multiple games this year that they should have lost, but they found a way to win. Pittsburgh was closer than you think to being right there too.

Goin thru Hell

If you're goin thru hell keep on going... Tomlin said we'd unleash hell in December, just didn't realize it was going to be on the fans.

That was one of the biggest defensive meltdowns by ANY team in recent memory. Let alone for the Steelers vs the offensive juggernaut that is the Raiders. Unbelievable how valuable Aaron Smith and Troy are to this team, scary in fact.

Playoffs?

To listen to some you'd think the Steelers were out of the hunt. Currently there are eight teams between 5-6 and 7-4 and possibly nine if the Pats lose to the Saints on Monday night. How would I assess each team's chances?

Jacksonville - even though they sit at 6-5, they are easily the worst team of this bunch, they just don't pass the sniff test. They will be lucky to go 2-3 the rest of the way and I'm guessing they lose their next four in a row.

Miami - Brutal schedule to close the season, can't see them getting more than two wins.

Titans - Clearly these are the real Titans, there was no way they were 0-6 bad. Having said that I think their magic will run out and they finish the season 8-8.

Houston - The Indy loss was big. I could see them going 4-1 and getting to 9-7.

Jets - they have three seemingly easy wins, and two real tough games. If they can get one off the Bengals or Colts, they get to 9-7.

Ravens - To me, this week vs. Green Bay is everything. They win and they can get to 10-6 with a loss to the Steelers in week 16. A loss and they could be in trouble.

Broncos - Chiefs twice and the Raiders, 10 to 11 wins should happen. They are in.

Steelers - Chiefs loss could haunt us. Should win the next two and get healthy in preparation for the Pack at Heinz Field. We'll have a long week of preparation that week and a win would effectively set up a playoff game with Baltimore in week 16. 10-6 could get in if the one loss is to Green Bay, I don't see 9-7 making it.

No Ben? No Problem?

Ok, not really, but...

The Steelers should be able to use play calling, field position and good defense to keep the game close. I don't expect either team to top 20 points anyway.

I think two things are due to happen; first the "eight weeks of a return for TD" is bound to stop sometime... hey NOW would be a good time, and second the Steelers defense while overall fairly solid has not created many turnovers or scored much themselves, they need to be at another level today. Oh and third, Stephan Logan is due to take one back himself. If any of those things happen we have a chance. If all of them happen, we win going away.

Sloppy, sloppy, sloppy

Typically the Steelers embody discipline, not today.

If I told you that the offense ran 78 plays, racked up 515 yards and held the ball for 44 minutes, while limiting the Chiefs to 282 yards you would think BLOW OUT. You should have been right.

The lowlights...

85 yards in penalties (most very ill timed holds)

3 turnovers

ANOTHER kick returned for a TD

and a defense that just couldn't make a stop on the game tying drive or in OT.

Play calling was suspect and Ben frankly made too many bad / risky plays against an inferior opponent where it just wasn't necessary.

This one hurts, we'll have to wait and see just how bad.

Bengals reverting to Bunglism?

Cinci is 7-2 overall, 4-0 in division, have swept the Ravens and the Steelers. It's all smooth sailing now right?

I think Mike Brown must have a plaque on his desk declaring "if it aint broke... break it"

What else could explain why they would sign Larry Johnson? Best case scenario he blends into the background (not likely). Worst case, he disrupts the unity on the team just by his mere presence.

What does this make Benson and Scott think? Safe? Secure? Me thinks not.

With their schedule they are still almost a lock to make the playoffs, to me this sets up a classic melt down scenario in the playoffs. I can see a Pittsburgh at Cinci first round match up in the jungle. A rumble it won’t be. The Bengals will come full circle and retreat into bunglism, it’s gonna be great!

Steelers 17 vs Bills 0

Shut out, pick six, blocked field goal, passing game looked solid, running game was at least decent. Can't claim that all cylinders were firing, but for a preseason game it's tough to ask for too much more.

Hopefully there is a lot of resting against Carolina, 'cause Tennessee is waiting.

Steelers win with Max Starks new deal

Steelers win with Max Starks new deal

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Steelers manage "not to lose" the Super Bowl

Not exactly how they drew it up, of that I'm confident.

Sure the Steelers won, Ben and Santonio basically put the game on their backs and delivered. Those two guys and that last drive are masking some horrific performances. The O Line was bad, real bad. Couldn't pick up short yards all season and this game was no different. At the goal line, when Pittsburgh could have stolen Arizona's will, they instead breathed life into their opponent... THREE TIMES.

The play calling on both sides of the ball was bad for most of the game. In my mind the defense was never put in position to show what it could do. They allowed Arizona to dictate the flow and that is an abomination. Warner wasn't pressured nearly enough and the underneath stuff was allowed all night. The Steelers played "bend, don't break" defense today and that is counter to everything we know about defense in Pittsburgh. There were multiple times the Steelers could have ended the game with more aggresive play calling, but they seemed to call plays out of fear, hoping to just "not lose" the game. Disgusting.

In the end the better team did win, but it could have been a historic blowout...

Super Bowl Preview

There are WAY too many people giving the Cardinals a shot in this game. The two primary advantages they had (Whisenhunt and Momentum) have been significantly neutralized by the week off.

The Steelers are the superior team and it's really not close. Let's compare...

Steelers were #1 vs the pass and that is the Cards game. Yes they will get a couple big plays and will probably score a little bit, but they will have a LOT of 3rd and longs which will likely turn into trouble for Warner and many three and outs.

Conversely the Cardinals defensive strength is in stopping the run. The Steelers passing game will look all world in this game which will in turn open up the run. I expect a few "bombs" from Ben to Holmes and Pittsburgh will have their foot on Arizona's throat early. By the 3rd quarter expect a balanced offensive approach from Pittsburgh and in the fourth the running game takes over as time of possession finally takes its toll on the Cardinals D.

I just have this feeling that Warner will not be finishing this and we will watch the start of the Matt Leinart era... albeit in a loss.

Steelers - 31
Cardinals - 13

AFC Title Recap

First of all, hope Willis McGahee is ok. That one play pretty much sums up the game.

Wicked hitting and more wicked hitting bordering on dirty. Did he lead with the helmet? Not sure and really don't think he intended to, but damn that hit was ridiculous.

Ultimately the difference was QB play, both D's were awesome, and everyone else kind of played at their normal level, but Ben was good (not great) and Flacco was terrible.

Pittsburgh 23 - Baltimore 14 (I projected 24 - 13, not half bad)

Steelers win, on to Tampa.

AFC Championship Preview

Here we go Steelers...

I HATE it when everyone is on any one team's bandwagon and that appears to be the case this week with the Steelers. Looking at the "expert" picks on ESPN I was shocked to see that EVERYONE picked the Steelers to win.

These teams are close enough to the same that it is foolish to think it can't go either way. The Steelers definitely have the advantage in most of the intangibles primarily home field and health, but those have been overcome many, many times in the past.

I think the Steelers have an opportunity to bury the Ravens quickly with the pass as they will be expecting a heavy dose of Parker. I hope they put up some points early and let the D take it from there.

Final Score
Steelers 24 - Ravens 13

The Perfect Quarter

Fifteen minutes of complete domination, err scratch that... 14 minutes, 43 seconds of complete domination.

What was a game in doubt at halftime became quite literally a one sided affair in the third. The Chargers defense is fortunate the Steelers did not score more, the Steelers defense must be wondering when the NFL switched the games to three periods.

All told Pittsburgh's offensive box score looks like this;

Time of Possession - 14:43
Plays - 25
Points - 7

San Diego?

Time of Possession - :17
Plays - 1
Points - 0

No really, truly..

AFC Championship in Pittsburgh?

Is there any place opponents would rather play in the AFC Championship? If there is they shouldn't.

Since 1994 the Steelers have played in six AFC title games. Five of them have been at home and if they win tomorrow they will host the Ravens. To win they will need to turn around their woeful history in home conference championships where they are a putrid 1-4.

San Diego Preview - Remember 1994

The Steelers are the better team, are playing at home, and have the weather on their side. They should win and in fact I believe they will. All that said, remember 1994, hopefully it humbles but inspires.

On that day the Steelers lost 13 to 17 in heart breaking fashion. Home teams are going down in droves this year, be ready Pittsburgh.

Harrison: Top Defensive Player

James Harrison has won the AP award today beating out DeMarcus Ware and Ed Reed. Harrison wins the award in his second season as a full time starter and continues to get better.

He joins an amazing list of Steeler players to achieve the honor; Joe Greene, Mel Blount, Jack Lambert and Rod Woodson.

If he lives up to that company he is going to something special for awhile to come.

Steelers get Chargers

The dream match up vs the Dolphins would have been nice, but we get the next best thing in San Diego. The Titans drew the tougher match up with Baltimore and I expect to see a Ravens vs Steelers AFC Title game.